Multi-Objective Decision-Making for Deploying Lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization Plants under Uncertainty
Authors
Ikeva K., Cardin M.A., Cilliers J., Star S., Hadler K.
Reference
Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress Iac, vol. 3-C, pp. 1724-1743, 2024
Description
To establish a self-sustained human presence in space. In-Situ Resource Utilisation (ISRU). the act of utilizing local resources available in space, such as the lunar regolith. has been proposed and researched extensively. Previous studies have recognized the uncertainties associated with the lunar environment and operations of ISRU plants, including resource content and operational availability, and their effects on ISRU plant performance. These studies, however, often overlook the fact that knowledge about uncertainty can be continuously updated through information-gathering. This paper analyses the design and planning of ISRU facilities as a multi-objective sequential decision-making problem under uncertainty. Inspired by the value of information analyses commonly used in the terrestrial resource extraction industry, this research demonstrates the use of multi-objective decision analysis for lunar ISRU plant deployment to show potential risk management trade-offs in oxygen production. Monte Carlo simulations reveal the effects of various uncertain parameters on the performance of each ISRU plant, while Bayesian inference is employed to update these uncertain parameters. A case study of the deployment of pilot and full-size ISRU plants in the lunar southern polar region reveals trade-offs between design and planning decisions. The results indicate the benefits of deploying a water extraction architecture for both pilot and full-scale plants for mass payback and extraction energy efficiency, despite significantly small oxygen yield. The study also highlights the flexibility added by deploying a hybrid lunar ISRU pilot plant, which allows decision-makers to adjust their strategies as needed.
